syria is off the market. there's on oil from -- >> how much oil is off the market? >> over a billion barrels. >> mostly made up by the saudis. >> virtually all. they're doing -- >> but they have capacity? >> they claim to have capacity for -- >> they claim. always the big issue. >> if cyou come to no morning yu want to say show me. i think it's probably 11 1/2. not a lot. >> and the market really trades on that spare capacity. >> like inventory, sure. >> so to the extent extent saudi has more or lerss, oil prices would come down. >> absolutely. >> so you are predicting a commodity bear market. >> we're saying that the day when you can throw a dart at the dart board and look at any commodity and make money, those days are over. so just as in oil and u.s. natural gas even more so, so, too, in base metals and coal and we're almost -- almost wherever you look other than agriculture and gold which is a little special, supply is coming in faster than demand. >> part of the bull market was a portfolio shift. investors decided we need 5% or 10% of our total portfolio in com